Labor Migration Outlook

Remittance through labor migration contributes 20 percent of National GDP in average. But at what cost ? Data shows at the cost of more than thousand lives a year. Labor Migration data table below shows a hard to believe truth. Every year millions of youth migrate in search of labor and good living.

‘Labour migration has become one of the defining characteristics of Nepal’s socio-economic landscape. The size and fluctuation in migratory outflows are a result of a combination of economic and non-economic factors.13 Commonly cited push factors include insufficient access of the working-age population to productive economic opportunities and cultural factors like the societal pressure to migrate. Pull factors, on the other hand, include jobs with wage differentials and better amenities, social networks and opportunities for upward social and career mobility. Furthermore, as posited by the New Economics of Labour Migration,14 labour migration is also a household strategy for families to diversify their income sources to mitigate the impact of income volatility from agriculture and other informal sectors. As will be further expanded in this Chapter, labour migration is also shaped by migration-related policy interventions of both the labour sending and destination countries.’ (Nepal Labor Migration Report 2020)

Labor Migration an Outlook

Fiscal yearMaleFemaleTotalRemmitance (in billion NRs.)Percentage of GDPDeathsDisability/Injury
065/0662113718594219965209.721.2788
066/06728403810056294094231.719.442110
067/06834430010416354716253.618.556431
068/06936170722958384665359.620.564757
069/07042312227767450889434.622.377290
070/0714988482896652781454324.3877116
071/0724776902141249910261725.51006184
072/0733847971837740317466525.5826117
073/0743633042018938349369522.6758204
074/0753316652241735408275521.9826361
075/07621563020578236208879.322.8763354
076/0771722471820619045387522.4672205
077/07864903717872081961.122.51243143
078/07958096949128630097986-1479245
Total471459128624250008338465.6109322125
 Data Source: Foreign Employment Board Secreteriat

FDI prefers Hydropower

The role of private investment remains crucial for stimulation growth and employment of a country. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is regarded as an important source of external financing in recent years. FDI plays a key role in widening the sources of financing and crowding in domestic investment in countries like Nepal that have financing constraints. Nepal has introduced legal, institutional and regulatory reforms in recent years to attract FDI inflows.

Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) has conducted a survey to analyze the trend of FDI inflows and existing FDI stock in Nepal. The survey updates and compiles FDI stock by counterpart economies and economic activities. The survey provides comprehensive information on face value of foreign liabilities of Nepalese companies arising on account of FDI. The statistics provided by the survey are used as inpurts in the compilation of Balance of Payment (BoP) and international Investment Position (IIP) of Nepal.

The survey covers 197 firms out of 604 companies that have taken FDI approvals from NRB at the end of 2020/21. The survey shows stock of FDI in Nepal increased by 14.8 percent to Rs. 227.9 billion at the end of 2020/21. Paid-up capital is the major component in FDI stock as it accounts for 53.9 percent of total FDI stock whereas the reserves and loans in total FDI stock accounts for 31.6 percent and 14.5 percent respectively.

The survey says Nepal has received foreign investment from 55 different countries as of mid-July 2021. In terms of total FDI stock, India ranks top position with Rs. 75.8 billion followed by China (Rs. 33.0 billion), Ireland (Rs. 16.5 billion), Singapore (Rs. 15.5 billion) and Saint Kitts and Nevis (Rs. 14.5 billion).

Industrial sector accounts for about 60.5 percent of total FDI stock. Electricity, gas, stem and air conditioning sector constitutes 30.8 percent out of the industrial sector. Similarly, manufacturing sector constitutes 29.5 percent and service sector constitutes 26.9 percent. According to the survey, hydropower sector has been preferred sector for FDI in recent years. 30.8 percent of FDI stock and 40 percent of total paid-up capital is in this sector.

The survey report presents the latest data of FDI stock in Nepal and provides the estimates of inward direct investment position or the FDI stock at book value and country-wise as well as sector-wise distribution of FDI stock at the end of 2021/21.

 

Federal and Provincial Elections: Voters and Polling stations

Election Commission has announced House of Representatives and Provincial Assembly elections date for Mangsir 4 2079 (20 Nov 2022). A total of 17988570 voters will be eligible to vote on the announced date. Among the total voters 8847579 female, 9140806 male and 185 others will be eligible to vote on the day. 10891 voting stations and 22226 polling centers have been approved by the election commission for the November polls.

According to Election Commission Morang district has the highest number of voters i.e. 735525 followed by Jhapa (663311) and Kathmandu (652126). Similarly, lowest number of voters are found in Manang district (6779) followed by Mustang (10957) and Dolpa (22774).

Among the provinces Bagmati Province has the highest number of voters (3471492) and Karnali Province has the lowest number voters (1008403).

Nepal’s Economy to Modestly Expand in FY2023

The country’s inflation will likely marginally decline to 6.1% in FY2023 from 6.3% in FY2022, restrained by tight monetary policy, a normal harvest, somewhat subdued oil prices, and a modest inflation decline in India.

The current account deficit is estimated to narrow to 8.1% of GDP in FY2023 owing to a moderation in merchandise imports amidst stable remittance inflows. Out-migration for foreign employment has picked up, exceeding the pre-pandemic level of FY2019. Imports related to COVID-19 will have substantially decreased and falling oil prices will help lower import bill for Nepal.

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The government’s fiscal policy reflected in the budget speech for 2023 is somewhat expansionary, focused on strengthening agriculture, industry, infrastructure, and social protection. Monetary policy is contractionary, aimed at curbing high credit growth to contain domestic demand, escalating prices, and rising imports.

The country’s inflation will likely marginally decline to 6.1% in FY2023 from 6.3% in FY2022, restrained by tight monetary policy, a normal harvest, somewhat subdued oil prices, and a modest inflation decline in India.

The current account deficit is estimated to narrow to 8.1% of GDP in FY2023 owing to a moderation in merchandise imports amidst stable remittance inflows. Out-migration for foreign employment has picked up, exceeding the pre-pandemic level of FY2019. Imports related to COVID-19 will have substantially decreased and falling oil prices will help lower import bill for Nepal.

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The update highlights that agriculture growth will likely be boosted owing to a normal monsoon, but the ongoing fertilizer shortages may adversely affect paddy production. Industry is expected to grow on increased generation of hydroelectricity and capacity utilization of industries. The report also notes that services growth will likely moderate owing to a slowdown in real estate, wholesale, and retail trade activities, induced by credit control measures and hike in interest rates. But provincial and federal level elections scheduled in November 2022 will stimulate spending supporting GDP growth.

The government’s fiscal policy reflected in the budget speech for 2023 is somewhat expansionary, focused on strengthening agriculture, industry, infrastructure, and social protection. Monetary policy is contractionary, aimed at curbing high credit growth to contain domestic demand, escalating prices, and rising imports.

The country’s inflation will likely marginally decline to 6.1% in FY2023 from 6.3% in FY2022, restrained by tight monetary policy, a normal harvest, somewhat subdued oil prices, and a modest inflation decline in India.

The current account deficit is estimated to narrow to 8.1% of GDP in FY2023 owing to a moderation in merchandise imports amidst stable remittance inflows. Out-migration for foreign employment has picked up, exceeding the pre-pandemic level of FY2019. Imports related to COVID-19 will have substantially decreased and falling oil prices will help lower import bill for Nepal.

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Nepal’s economy is estimated to modestly expand by 4.7% (at market prices) in fiscal year (FY) 2023, down from an estimated growth of 5.8% in FY2022, says an update of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022, the flagship economic publication of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast to moderate largely reflecting the tight monetary policy for FY2023, necessary to stem the rise in imports, a marked decline in foreign exchange reserves, and inflationary pressure.

The update highlights that agriculture growth will likely be boosted owing to a normal monsoon, but the ongoing fertilizer shortages may adversely affect paddy production. Industry is expected to grow on increased generation of hydroelectricity and capacity utilization of industries. The report also notes that services growth will likely moderate owing to a slowdown in real estate, wholesale, and retail trade activities, induced by credit control measures and hike in interest rates. But provincial and federal level elections scheduled in November 2022 will stimulate spending supporting GDP growth.

The government’s fiscal policy reflected in the budget speech for 2023 is somewhat expansionary, focused on strengthening agriculture, industry, infrastructure, and social protection. Monetary policy is contractionary, aimed at curbing high credit growth to contain domestic demand, escalating prices, and rising imports.

The country’s inflation will likely marginally decline to 6.1% in FY2023 from 6.3% in FY2022, restrained by tight monetary policy, a normal harvest, somewhat subdued oil prices, and a modest inflation decline in India.

The current account deficit is estimated to narrow to 8.1% of GDP in FY2023 owing to a moderation in merchandise imports amidst stable remittance inflows. Out-migration for foreign employment has picked up, exceeding the pre-pandemic level of FY2019. Imports related to COVID-19 will have substantially decreased and falling oil prices will help lower import bill for Nepal.

Local level election 2079 counts majority youth candidates

AgeNumberPercentage
214120.28
226380.44
238350.57
2411800.81
2515361.06
2619311.33
2718481.27
2823601.62
2925011.72
3027191.87
3131272.15
3234412.37
3340632.8
3443703.01
3542782.95
3645943.17
3743252.98
3850963.51
3949183.39
4052303.61
4145553.14
4248603.35
4348183.32
4442232.91
4540072.76
4641862.88
4735542.45
4839782.74
4937942.61
5049353.4
5141432.86
5240712.81
5338292.64
5435012.41
5530812.12
5627771.91
5721911.51
5822641.56
5919211.32
6020701.42
6117531.21
6216371.13
6314711.01
6412700.87
6510480.72
6610000.69
677800.53
686980.48
696040.41
705900.4
713840.26
722950.2
732580.17
742160.14
751710.11
761250.08
771160.08
78830.05
79520.03
80430.02
81280.01
82180.01
83160.01
84190.01
8560.004
8670.004
8730.002
8910.0006
9030.002
9120.001
9420.001
Total144859100

As per press release byelection commission local level election 2079 counts 70 percent youth candidates. As per data released there are 40 percent candidates of 21 to 40 years age group.  Similarly 11 percent candidates are of age group 21-30, and approximately 30 percent candidates are of age group 31-40. Youth attraction in local level election as candidates gives a positive message for Nepal’s politics. 

Voters in Nepal updated data

Election Commission (EC) of Nepal released updated number of Voters in Nepal on 27 March 2022. According to EC there are 17733723 voters eligible to cast vote in the upcoming election. Out of the total number of voters there are 8741530 female and 8992010 male voters with 183 in others category. Morang counts the highest district with 715223 voters. Followed by Jhapa 646234 and Kathmandu 637775. Similarly, Manang stands lowest with only 6496 voters. Regarding the local government Kathmandu Metropolitan City has the highest number of voters (300242), followed by Pokhara Metropolitan city (207712) and Bharatpur Metropolitan City (185752). Number of voters counts lowest (448) in Narpa Bhumi rural municipality.

Province 1 has highest number of voters (3347384), followed by Madhesh Province (3331170) and Lumbini Province (321957). Karnali Province has the lowest number of voters (1001282). In terms of female voters Bagmati Province has the highest female voters (1707942). Similarly, in terms of male voters, Madhesh Province has the highest number of male voters (1797945).